Providing a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in an extensive range of markets in Asia, the market analysis predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in relatively early subscriber growth phases.

By describing long-range scenarios, the analysis identifies a band within which subscriber growth is expected to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we consider to be the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarized in a series of tables for each country and market segment.

The scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. It is assumed that a possible deviation of 15-20% is allowed around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time, it is acknowledged that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2017 and 2020, with estimates for 2015.

Malaysia – forecast – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020

Year		Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
	Subscribers (million)	Penetration	Subscribers (million)	Penetration
2013	3.7	12.6%	3.7	12.6%
2014 (actual)	3.6	12.1%	3.6	12.1%
2015	3.4	11.3%	3.9	13.6%
2017	3.2	10.6%	4.1	13.6%
2020	2.9	8.8%	4.4	13.5%

 

Malaysia – forecast – fixed broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020

Year		Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
	Subscribers1 (million)	Penetration	Subscribers1(million)	Penetration
2013	2.9	10%	2.9	10%
2014 (actual)	3.1	10%	3.1	10%
2015	3.2	10%	3.9	10%
2017	3.6	11%	4.0	12%
2020	4.2	12%	5.5	16%

 

Note: It includes only fixed broadband subscribers

Malaysia – forecast – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2017; 2020

Year		Lower growth scenario		Higher growth scenario
	Subscribers (million)	Penetration	Subscribers(million)	Penetration
2013	43.0	145%	43.0	145%
2014 (actual)	44.9	149%	44.9	149%
2015	45.0	150%	46.0	151%
2017	45.5	150%	50.0	154%
2020	50.0	152%	55.0	166%